July 2016: Best From The Month

Baseball is a wacky and wonderful game. Only in baseball is it realistically possible to see something that has never happened before every day.

For example, MLB is 113 years old, and the Nationals completed the first ever 3-3-5 triple play.

That’s right, on July 31, 2016, the nationals completed a play that hadn’t happened once in the last 113 years.

Before we get to ahead of ourselves, I’d like to start with an apology. We typically post our monthly recap as close to the end of the month as possible, but I wanted to wait until the trade deadline ended so that we could get you as much news as possible.

So, let’s start with the deadline, because there were a lot of moves happening up until the very end.

It seems like almost every team in the league was looking to buy or sell; no one was interested in staying put.

The team who truly did the best out of all the competition had to be the Yankees. It’s not often that a selling team does better than anyone else, but look at what happened.

GM Brian Cashman knew the Yankees wouldn’t be doing much, so he got rid of his star closer, set up man, and Carlos Beltran (an aging, OF/DH bat).

What did he get in return?

Teams were willing to give up a total of 11 prospects, including 5 players who now rank in the top 16 of the Yankees organization.

Three of the players the Yankees got were considered top 100 prospects, which gives them a total of 6 in the top 50 pool.

As for the buyers in this market, it’s hard to argue against how well the Rangers did. By giving up 3 players (who aren’t their top prospects), the Rangers were able to upgrade at the Catcher position mightily.

If you’re not sure you agree, just look at how much Lucroy upgrades the backstop – his batting average is higher than Robinson Chirnios’ OBP. Lucroy wins average .299 to .192 and OBP .359 to .274.

The only thing that is truly comparable between the two is slugging with Lucroy winning .482 to .471.

While they were at it, the Rangers were also able to add a late inning guy by the name of Jeremy Jeffress. Most don’t know who he is – and if you do, it’s probably because of fantasy baseball.

But, he’s the guy who got the closer’s role for the Brewers because of an injury. He took the job and has done well with a 2.22 ERA and 27 saves in 28 chances. Only 3 players have a better save percentage than Jeffress this season.

Then there is the veteran hitter that can transform the clubhouse. The Rangers addressed Prince Fielder’s struggles (a .212 average with 8 HR) by adding a guy like Carlos Beltran who has over 400 career HR.

He’s had a power spike this year (22 HR- already more than 2014 or 2015) and a .304 average.

One of the most underappreciated moves of the deadline came from the Washington Nationals.

Mark Melancon has quietly been one of the best closers in baseball over the past few years. Melancon’s average for the last 3 seasons is a 1.94 ERA with 38 saves. His ERA+ is almost 200 and he strikes out 5 batters for every walk.

Mark Melancon

Meanwhile, the current closer for the Nationals, Jonathan Papelbon, has a 4.28 ERA which is below average for the league.

If you’re interested in the unusual occurrences of Major League Baseball, look at the Padres and Marlins. They agreed to a trade that would send Colin Rea and Andrew Cashner from San Diego to Miami.

After the trade was completed, Colin Rea got injured in his first start with the Marlins, and, after calling foul play, the Marlins demanded the Padres taking him back.

The teams, essentially, agreed to a partial return due to defective parts.

The “losers at the deadline” is always a tough list to make. You never like to talk about how terrible some of the GM’s are.

However, trying to understand what some of these GM’s see or how they think can create minor headaches in itself.

Somehow, Sandy Alderson and the New York Mets couldn’t understand why the Brewers wouldn’t accept an average catcher in a trade for the Brewers All-Star Catcher.

Alderson clearly doesn’t understand how the game works. To further that statement, let’s look at the trade that did happen.

The Mets agreed to a deal with the Reds that would send Jay Bruce to the Mets, because the Mets really need another corner outfielder.

Jay Bruce

The interesting part, is that the deal fell through because of a minor-league player not clearing the physical.

So, they completely changed the trade, and came up with a new list of players. So, now that the deal is finalized, the Mets could place a RF in more than half of the line-up.

To offer a little more analysis of the trade, here’s a quick rundown of the last time each of the expected starters has played more than 20 games in CF in 1 season.

We’ll also include their defensive grading. For that grading, we are using UZR/150 which takes into account a player’s arm, range and errors per 150 games in a given position.

Granderson: 2014 (UZR/150= 21.4), Jay Bruce: 2008 (UZR/150= 16.6), Yoenis Cespedes: 2016 (UZR/150= -18.6).

That’s right, after this trade, the Mets have the option of moving players to a position they haven’t played in years, or leaving their current CF in position while costing them, roughly, 1 run every 10 games.

Yoenis Cespedes has literally never graded out as a positive defensive player in CF.

One of the most difficult teams to read is the Pittsburg Pirates. They’re only 4 games out of the playoffs right now, but they seemed to be in a bit of a sell mode.

Even with that, they made solid moves. As good as Francisco Liriano has been for them over the past few seasons, he has struggled this year.

In essence, it seems as though the Bucos decided to trade away 2 prospects and a struggling starter for a young player who could replace him (Liriano), just to avoid paying the $15 million still owed to him.

They also made a trade with the Mets that didn’t amount to much. Jonathan Niese went back to the Mets in exchange for Antonio Bastardo. Both players are disappointing at this point.

They also picked up Ivan Nova who may be a perfect fit for them to make their next project.

Finally, there were a number of teams that did little or nothing at the deadline, which will leave a number of fans unhappy.

The Orioles made a trade to get Steve Pearce (who they let walk in Free Agency this offseason).

As the Red Sox are bouncing between first place and 2 games back, they were willing to stay put with the team they’ve already got.

It’s always an interesting time of the year when the end of the month is the most important part of the month. But that’s what the trade deadline is.

If you run a team, it’s about fighting for the playoffs. If you’re a fantasy baseball fan, it’s about what this time of year does to your team.

In my case, my closers aren’t closers any more (Hector Rondon and Jeremy Jeffress). I hope your teams were able to handle the trade deadline a little better.

But, that’s enough about the trade deadline.

It’s going to shape playoff runs for sure, but, surely, that’s not all that happened during July, right?

There was also an all-star break that many people enjoyed. In my opinion, the best part of the break is the HR Derby, and it did not disappoint.

The early favorite, for obvious reason, was Giancarlo Stanton who ended up winning. So, if the guy that everyone predicted won, was there really any point to watching it all?

Well, yes, mostly because of the winner. Stanton was among some of the best power hitters in the game, and was still a man among boys.

Stanton hit a record 61 HR in the derby, though the record part is helped by the new format. He only had 1 round that was even close- winning by 3, 17, and 7.

 Giancarlo Stanton

Stanton had the 10 longest home runs. He also had 18 of the 19 longest. Think about that! 8 of the best power hitters in the Country come together, and he has 18 of 19 top marks.

Stanton averaged 446 feet, while the other 7 players combined averaged 412 feet. So, by night’s end, Stanton had the most HR, the longest HR, the longest average, the fastest HR, the lowest HR, and, well, just about any other stat that you could come up with.

If you missed the Derby live, it’s worth watching a couple of weeks later, just to see Stanton put on a show.

The second part of the All-star break, which is significantly less watched, is the All-Star game itself. They’ve tried to make it matter, so the league that wins gets “home field advantage” in the World Series.

Sadly, it doesn’t work because there are always guys who shouldn’t be there, and guys who get snubbed. That being said, it was a decent game.

The crowd gave David Ortiz a standing ovation as he walked off the field. The game was close, but didn’t require extra innings.

The highlight real from the game ended up being all about the Royals as Kansas City players (Salvador Perez and Eric Hosmer) drove in all 4 runs for the AL team.

Other story lines include Ortiz’s last game, while Kris Bryant showed the world that there is a great young talent pool.

The All-Star game was an interesting mix of youth (Kris Bryant, Odubel Herrera, Xander Bogaerts, and Mookie Betts) with veterans like Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Trumbo and Carlos Beltran.

The game was also an interesting game of shuffling pitchers as the AL used 10 pitchers, including Andrew Miller and Will Harris who split the 8th. In similar fashion, the NL club went with 9 pitchers in 8 innings.

Interestingly enough, the NL team had 4 pitchers who didn’t go a full inning: 3 closers and Jon Lester.

It seems as though July was the month for the top contenders to take it easy. Not one team that is currently leading the standings finished first for the month of July.

That is, none of the “leaders” extended their league during the month. Toronto was the best team in the month of July thanks to a +46 run differential where the team averaged 5.6 runs per game.

In direct correlation, the Royals had the worst offense (3.3 runs per game) and the worst record (7-19).

When you consider all that was written about the trade deadline and how some of the teams are trending, it’s looking a lot like the Blue Jays could make a run in the playoffs.

Because of their stellar play this month, the Jays have gotten within 1 game of the division lead. It’s an interesting division where the Red Sox and Blue Jays are within 1 game of first.

A team that is only 6.5 out and 1 game above .500 (the Yankees) just had a fire sale, getting rid of anything they could get prospects for, and the Rays, who many thought would be great, are 20 games below .500.

The team that should be really fun to watch is the Rangers. They’ve got the fire power already – Profar, Desmond, Beltre, and Odor.

They also decided to take their team to the next level with guys like Beltran and Lucroy.

Yu Darvish

As for pitching, I’d be comfortable heading to the playoffs with my top two starters being Hamels and Darvish. Darvish is one of the best players ever to come over from Japan.

Hamels is just a veteran lefty who has a World Series ring and has won 86% of his starts since moving to Texas.

He’s a guy who has improved his ERA since joining the AL, pitching in a hitter’s park, and adding the DH.

He may have been the pick up the Rangers made last year, but it’ll pay dividends in 2016.

In a surprise turn of events, Mike Napoli was the best player in baseball during the month of July.

He found his power stroke, tying for the league lead with 9 HR which helped his run production (17 R, 22 RBI). Napoli’s July numbers also saw his OBP for the season (.333) raise significantly (.423 for July).

The new comer, who nearly matched Napoli was a kid named Max Kepler. The centerpiece of the Twins’ offense also had 9 HR. He had 17 R and 22 RBI. However, his .343 OBP couldn’t match Napoli’s.

Pitching always offers some flux when trying to nail down the best of the best. Stephen Strasburg has been one of the best for years, but has always struggled with injuries.

Well, this season, he’s fighting for the right to be called The best pitcher in baseball. He got hit with his first L of the season in July, which drops him to 15-1.

The more surprising end of things is that JA Happ and Justin Verlander were alongside Strasburg during the past month.

Happ had 4 wins with 42 striekouts in 31.1 innings. He had a sub-1 WHIP and a 1.44 ERA.

Verlander, on the other hand, is fighting father time this season, and managed 3 wins while pitching to the tune of 40 K’s in 35.2 innings with a .93  WHIP and a 1.77 ERA.

Trevor Story continues to be the brightest young star in the league. He finished second in HR (8) for the month, and is pushing Nomar Garciaparra’s record for HR by a rookie Shortstop.

Trevor Story Sets MLB Record

With Story playing in 91% of his teams games this season, it’s reasonable to expect Story to hit something in the neighborhood of 36 HR.

For perspective, that puts Story exactly between Mike Piazza (35) and Albert Pujols (37) in their rookie seasons. Not bad company to have.

I’m not expecting Story to be that powerful for his entire career, but it’s a great story to watch, especially if you’re a fan of Coors Field.

So, we’ve gotten to a reasonable spot to check in on the awards for 2016. Let’s take a quick look at some of the favorites.

The AL MVP seemingly has to come from the AL East – Donaldson, Bogaerts, Betts, and Encarnacion are all having great seasons.

Right now, I’m not sure that I could argue against any of them. There are only 2 other players I’m considering – Altuve (on a losing team) and Mike Trout.

With Bogaerts and Betts being teammates, I would argue neither should win the award. You could make the same case with Donaldson and Encarnacion.

That may mean that with 4 of the top 6 MVP candidates being from the AL East, it could be Mike Trout who takes home the award.

It would be tough to argue as he has 82 R, 66 RBI, 19 HR, and 17 SB while boasting a .313 average.

The NL MVP race is a little more interesting as you’ve got Kris Bryant (a young stud), Paul Goldschmidt (who we all expected), Anthony Rizzo (coming into his prime) and Wil Myers (new to the superstar club).

It’s going to be tough to argue any of these. It would be a great story to see Myers get the award as a former top prospect who is finally healthy enough to show the world what he can do.

But I believe it comes down to Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Godlschmidt and Myers are both on teams that aren’t going anywhere.

I think Bryant gets the advantage as he has leads Rizzo in HR, SB, and Runs produced (R+RBI).

Bryant has also shown the flexibility to play multiple positions, and bat from multiple spots in the lineup when need.

The AL Cy Young race will be an interesting, though oddly inferior race.

When looking at the top pitchers in baseball this year, most of the names that come to mind are in the NL. But, the award will be given, so let’s look at who the options are.

Chris Sale is always in the discussion. He’s pitching like his usual self with 14 wins and 133 K’s in 139 innings. He has a respectable 3.17 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP.

Corey Kluber has been respectable himself; registering 10 wins and 145 K’s in 143 IP. He has a 2.95 ERA and a1.11 WHIP. The interesting part of this group comes in the second tier.

Newcomer Aaron Sanchez has 11 wins and 118 K’s with a 2.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Justin Verlander is trying to return back to form to the tune of 11 wins, 155 K’s while sporting a 3.54 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

Danny Duffy

Finally, Danny Duffy has surprised the world, coming out of nowhere for 7 wins and 126 K’s. He sports a 2.98 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

The NL Cy Young is where the real interest is going to happen.

Arguably, the top 7 pitchers in Major League Baseball all come from the NL. There are 14 pitchers who have at least 10 wins in the NL. There are also 14 NL pitchers with at least 120 K’s.

Throw in 22 starting pitchers (with 75+ IP) who have a 3.00 ERA or lower and another 15 pitchers (with 75+ IP) who have a 1.10 WHIP or lower.

It’s a pretty tough race. Kershaw is still currently the best pitcher in baseball, but I’m thinking his injury will prevent him from taking his annual award home this year.

That still leaves us with a pretty hefty group. Let’s look at the guys without using their names.

 IPWK’sERAWHIP
Player A150.2101702.09.98
Player B133.2151612.63.98
Player C148.2111872.85.94
Player D125.2121842.791.05
Player E147.1131312.631.07
Player F134.1121392.751.06

You see why I said it’s a close vote? I don’t envy the voters this year. For the record, in order the players from A through F are Bumgarner, Strasburg, Scherzer, Fernandez, Cueto, and Arrieta.

That’s a rough ballot to cast, but I guess it all depends on what you prefer. Again, Kershaw is deserving based on how well he has pitched, but I’m not sure he makes anymore appearances this year.

To this point in the season, you would think that the AL Rookie of the year is pretty much open and closed with Nomar Mazarra.

He has a .281 average with 13 HR, 40 RBI, and 43 R. He’s also played more games than any other rookie. Dae-Ho Lee hasn’t exactly been a slouch himself.

He’s got 13 HR, 40 RBI, 25 R anda .264 batting average. His numbers are held back by his lack of atbats. He’s averaging less than 3 AB per game.

My favorite for the AL ROY award at this point is Max Kepler. The guy has 14 HR in 62 games. He’s also got 44 RBI, 33 R, but only has a .256 average.

Kepler even has 23 walks. It is yet to be seen if Kepler can maintain his numbers, but if he can, he deserves serious consideration for ROY.

Now, the NL Rookie Of the Year award is all but given out already. Trevor Story has 27 HR, 72 RBI, 67 R and a .272 average. That’s better than most veteran SS will finish with.

Fantasy baseball rankings have Story as the 3 best SS in baseball at this point. The only other player who has a chance to catch up to Story is Corey Seager.

Seager is no slouch himself as he he is hitting for a .310 average with 18 HR, 50 RBI and 68 R. It looks like a third place finish may go to Aledmy Diaz who is hitting well for himself.

He’s leading all qualifying rookies with a .312 average. He also has 14 HR, 57 RBI, and 64 R. They’re 3 great young players, who all happen to play the same position.

What is your take on the All-Star break? Do you pay attention to the game, or do you just follow the HR Derby? Do you have any suggestions for how the game could be improved?

Who would you vote for in the NL Cy Young race?